Aluminum premium hits record in U.S., while import costs surge under Trump’s tariffs. Meanwhile, will Trump really send out a $2,000 tariff dividend for every American?

In today’s sub-chapter:

My favorite canned seltzer might be getting a little more expensive…and aluminum is why.

Yes, aluminum is back in the news.

The U.S. Midwest aluminum premium has hit an all-time high of 88.10 cents a lb or $1,942 a metric ton last Friday. Nearly triple what it was in late 2024.

Stock is low, and import costs are high. And when aluminum jumps, everything follows.

HTSUS 7601.10.30: unwrought aluminum, not alloyed, pure grade. This is what U.S. makers need and can't get at home. So, where does the U.S. buy from? Canada is by far the largest import partner, according to data from WITS.

China barely ships here. But they set the price floor for the world. If you buy from China? Brace for duty stacking: 2.6% base + 50% (Section 232) + 25% (9903.91.01) + 20% (9903.01.24). One line item. Pure cost. No flex. Just Math.

Steel can recycle its way out. Aluminum can't. 

The U.S. imports nearly half its aluminum. Most of it's high-purity metal from Canada. Aluminum is picky. You can't just mix alloys or scrap to hit specs for planes, defense, or cans. 

Steel has scrap piles and less fuss. Aluminum doesn't. 

The Midwest premium already bakes in the 50% Section 232 tariff.

It starts at the top. Raw aluminum becomes sheet, plate, foil, parts, and castings. Every step takes a cost with it. 

Even "friendly" countries reprice off the same global benchmark. So the hit spreads. The cost flows through every line, from auto, aerospace, and defense to construction and appliances. And yes, even to packaging and my favorite canned seltzer (more on this later).

The grid has capacity in theory, but not where smelters actually operate. Restarting existing plants takes years, and building new ones can take a decade.

Raw materials aren’t domestic either. Alumina and bauxite come from overseas, and refineries can’t be ramped up quickly. Recycling offers some relief (it’s fast, clean, and important), but it can’t produce the high-purity alloys required for planes, cans, or defense parts.

Big projects require stability. Billion-dollar investments need reliable power, predictable regulations, and time. Right now, the system lacks all three.

And to best understand pressure points, keep an eye on a few key signals:

The U.S. can rebuild capacity, but not overnight. It can't magic new smelters, refineries, or power lines into being.

Without a longer runway, tariffs act less like policy and more like an inflation engine in plain sight.

Now, more on my favorite canned seltzer.

With raw aluminum hitting an all-time high, it’s impacting everything made from metal: foil trays, lids, wraps, and cans.

Our friends in the packaging industry are feeling the pressure. It’s changing how they design packages, choose materials, and manage sourcing. Some are switching to plastics or paper-based options… but the problem is: many consumers, including me, still prefer cans.

It’s surprising how something as simple as a drink can be connected to global trade policy. The problems start far upstream, but the effects are felt by the people trying to package a simple beverage for consumers like us.

So when I crack open a can now, it reminds me how even the simplest products carry the weight of an entire system trying to hold together.

🏛️ Bessent Confident Trump’s Tariffs will Prevail. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he is “very, very optimistic” after the Supreme Court hearing on Trump’s tariffs. He said plaintiffs challenging the tariffs “almost embarrassed themselves,” described revenues collected “coincident,” and noted higher domestic manufacturing could help balance any potential losses.

⌚U.S., Switzerland Near Deal to Slash Swiss Tariffs. The U.S. and Switzerland are close to a deal to cut the 39% tariffs President Trump imposed in August on Swiss exports. The duty could drop to 15%, matching EU rates. Key exports include watches, jewelry, machinery, chocolate, electronics, and pharmaceuticals. Now, we might see Swatch’s controversial limited-edition WHAT IF…TARIFFS watch disappearing. Maybe we’ll see a new edition with the 1 and 5 swapped as a nod to the 15% tariff.

🤝 Trump Says US Close to India Trade Deal. President Donald Trump said the U.S. and India are close to completing a new trade deal, describing it as very different from earlier agreements. He added that tariffs on Indian goods remain high because of the Russian oil issue, but signaled they would be lowered “at some point”. The push to finalize the deal comes as India expands its trade and energy ties with Russia.

🇻🇳 Vietnam Targets December Trade Deal With U.S. Vietnam is reportedly negotiating a trade pact with the U.S. to finalize by December, seeking tariff exemptions for products like coffee. The U.S., facing a $111 billion trade deficit with Hanoi, wants greater market access for American cars and farm goods under Trump’s new 20% tariff regime.

President Trump, once again, has hinted at sending money to every American. In his Truth Social post last Sunday, he said that at least $2,000 will be paid to everyone (not including high‑income people), adding that “people who are against tariffs are FOOLS!”

Makes me a bit confused.

Trump said he’s going to fund it from what he called tariff revenue, but his own lawyer, D. John Sauer, told the Supreme Court that tariffs aren’t meant to generate revenue.

Anyway, back to the $2,000 tariff dividend.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who seemed noncommittal, suggested that it could come via tax cuts.

But, will there be enough money for it? Doing some quick math, the U.S. collected over $195 billion in tariffs as of October 27, 2025, while 163 million Americans filed taxes in 2024. At $2,000 each, that totals about $326 billion, which is way more than the revenue on hand.

What’s more, for those payouts to actually happen, congressional approval would likely be required. Is Congress going to approve it, or can Trump do it unilaterally?

I won’t bet on it!

Justice Amy Coney Barrett warned during last week’s SCOTUS hearing that tariff refunds could be “a mess” if Trump’s tariffs are ruled illegal.

But many U.S. importers insist refunds wouldn’t be messy. Rick Muskat, CEO of DeerStags, a family-run shoe company, said it’s easy: “On every customs entry, we detail specific line items that indicate the duty/tariff rates we are paying.”

According to SPS Commerce, CBP has two options for tariff refunds:

Lori Mullins, whom I featured in a previous edition, shared in her interview with MSNBC that the easy way could work. She explained that tariff refunds could be simple if handled automatically, similar to how U.S. Customs returned GSP duties in 2018. Because IEEPA entries are detailed, the refund process could be faster in theory.

The tricky part is when repayments have to be done manually, as importers would need to file Post Summary Corrections, and customs brokers, already short-staffed, would have to handle a big surge of requests.

Last week, after the Supreme Court’s hearing on Trump’s IEEPA tariffs, I got a chance to talk with my importer friend. He told me he’s hopeful for a refund, but he’s also uncertain and is figuring out what to do next.

According to an article from The Packer, Jonathan Stoel from Hogan Lovells shares a few key things to keep an eye on to protect your chances for a refund.

Have you set up your Christmas tree yet?

I’ve always loved artificial Christmas trees since they’re easy to set up, but now I’m thinking… maybe a real tree. Or heck, maybe a digital one.

Chris Butler, CEO of National Tree Co., said in an interview with FreightWaves that tariffs have forced them to increase holiday decor prices, including artificial Christmas trees. His company, which supplies Amazon, Walmart, and Macy’s, raised prices about 10% this year due to tariffs and logistics costs.

Supply chain expert Rob Handfield of NC State says holiday shoppers will see fewer selections of Christmas trees. Toys, clothes, and shoes are pricier too since most come from China, India, and other tariff-hit countries.

Retailers are adapting by adjusting their inventory, supply chain, and pricing strategies. Still, we can never tell how far the tariff of these impacts goes. How much can these companies absorb, and how much are consumers willing to pay to decorate their homes with the spirit of Christmas?

So yeah…I’ll probably just grab my saw and hunt for a real tree. Or maybe a digital Xmas tree, share it online, and hope no one tries to slap tariffs on that, too!

Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters (CME) and GHY International are hosting a full-day, in-person workshop to help manufacturers navigate tariffs, compliance, and trade relief programs.

When: Monday, November 24, 2025 | 9:00 a.m. – 3:00 p.m. CST
Where: Victoria Inn Brandon, 3550 Victoria Avenue, Brandon, MB
Cost: Free (Lunch included)

Seats are limited – Register Here

Pete Mento, our favorite trade uncle, just dropped another bold take on fixing the U.S. customs and tariff mess on LinkedIn. And ICYMI, Uncle Pete hosts a weekly webinar to help everyone stay on top of trade policy and tariff updates. Here’s the link to this week’s session.