Ontario’s TV ad angered Trump, prompting him to threaten a new 10% tariff on Canadian goods and suspend trade talks with Canada. The U.S.-Canada trade rift is hurting Canada’s consequential industries, like automotive and steel.

In today’s sub-chapter:

Blue Jays take a 3-2 lead over Dodgers in the World Series. And if you watched the first two games, you might have seen the tariff ad that made Trump angry.

Just as Canada seemed ready to make progress on a trade deal with the U.S., President Trump threatened a new 10% tariff on Canadian imports (still awaiting details) and abruptly cut off trade talks with Canada. This came after a TV ad commissioned by Ontario Premier Doug Ford featured former President Ronald Reagan’s 1987 remarks warning against the dangers of tariffs.

Here’s the ad! 👇

The one-minute ad stitched together several excerpts from Reagan. The remarks are authentic and align with Raegan’s message about his distaste for tariffs, but the ad clips out a section where he mentions imposing them on Japan as a last resort to deal with unfair trade practices.

Ford said the ad was intended to start a conversation, but Trump called the ad fraudulent. The Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation & Institute said the video misrepresented the original address and encouraged everyone to watch the unedited video.👇

Leaders like Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew and British Columbia Premier David Eby voiced support for Ford, but many Canadians were upset that $75 million was spent on the TV ad.

The Ontario Premier seems to have no regrets, bragging that it was a “mission accomplished.” He also said the ad was shown to Prime Minister Carney before it aired. The ad has since been taken down after it aired during the first two games of the World Series.

Prime Minister Mark Carney, who has worked patiently to de-escalate tensions, now has to rebuild the strained relationship. The Prime Minister is now looking to double exports to other countries to reduce reliance on the U.S.

So, was the $75 million ad a win for Canada? Is it a timely marketing stunt that could affect Trump’s tariff case before the U.S. Supreme Court on November 5? Or will it just derail the progress the country has made on new trade deals with the U.S.?

And if the additional 10% tariff is implemented, how would it impact Canada’s already strained industries, like automotive, steel, and lumber?

It’s too early to gauge the long-term impacts, but for now, let’s just hope cooler heads prevail.

Now, back to the World Series!

In an interview with CBC’s Front Burner, University of Toronto professor Dimitry Anastakis said Canada’s auto industry is facing its biggest challenge since the 1960s, an existential crisis. The sector has long relied on close ties with the U.S., but new tariffs and shifting trade policies are straining that relationship.

Ottawa recently cut tariff-free import quotas for GM and Stellantis after both scaled back Canadian manufacturing. Stellantis plans to move Jeep Compass production from Canada to the U.S., while GM will halt BrightDrop van production in Ontario. Now we’re seeing how vulnerable the Canadian auto industry has become.

Can Canada rebuild its auto sector without losing U.S. access? Should it look outside North America for new partners? Anastakis says a renewed Auto Pact–style deal could emerge, one that keeps cross-border production alive, but can it actually save Canada’s shrinking auto industry?

And what about the Ontario ad that just angered Trump? Could it push the Canadian auto industry into even deeper trouble?

Car makers aren’t the only ones hurting. CME’s Head of Policy and Government Relations, Jillian Einarson, told Global News that Manitoba steel manufacturers can’t handle another 10% tariff hike.

Steel and iron exports to the U.S. are already down 40% from last year, and another 10% increase could push manufacturers to the edge. Many were hopeful for a trade deal after Prime Minister Carney’s visit to Washington, but no deal was reached.

Canadian Institute of Steel Construction CEO Keanin Loomis says there’s still hope as companies look to grow their market share at home. But will it be enough to make up for what’s been lost and what could it further lose if the 10% tariff takes effect?

🌏 U.S. Signs Trade Agreements with 4 ASEAN Countries. President Trump signed trade agreements with Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia, and Vietnam. The deals maintain 19% tariffs on most Malaysian, Thai, and Cambodian exports, and 20% for Vietnam. Thailand removes tariffs on 99% of U.S. goods, Malaysia won’t restrict rare earth exports, and all four pledge labor and environmental protections.

🔍 U.S. Launches Investigation into China Trade Compliance. The U.S. Trade Representative has launched a Section 301 investigation into China’s adherence to the 2019 Phase One Trade Agreement. The review will assess whether China met commitments on market access, IP, and U.S. exports. Public comments are due by December 1, with a hearing on December 16.

🤝 US and China Agree on Trade Framework. The U.S. and China have reached a framework for a trade deal to be discussed when Presidents Trump and Xi meet in South Korea. The agreement pauses rare earth export restrictions, resumes Chinese soybean purchases, and removes the previously threatened 100% tariff.

📉 Trump Cuts Fentanyl Tariffs on China to 10%. Trump and Xi agreed to a one-year deal on rare earth supplies, delaying China’s export restrictions. The U.S. cut fentanyl tariffs on Chinese goods from 20% to 10%, lowering overall tariffs to 47%. Both sides plan reciprocal visits and will resume trade on soybeans and chips.

Lesotho, a small, landlocked nation surrounded by South Africa, is still hurting despite Trump’s tariff reduction from 50% to 15% in August. 

After the U.S. tariff policy changes, textile exports to the United States were disrupted, with an estimated 13,000 job losses tied to canceled orders. With apparel accounting for nearly half of Lesotho’s exports, the impacts are felt by small businesses, suppliers, and communities that rely heavily on the country’s textile trade.

Prime Minister Sam Matekane is now urging Trump to further cut tariffs to 10% or even zero, but will the U.S. President listen? For the little mountain kingdom that depends deeply on U.S. consumers, every % of tariff cut can decide whether factories stay open or lights go out.

Next week, the Supreme Court will decide the final fate of Trump’s IEEPA tariffs. If the court overrules against Trump, billions could be refunded.

But how do refunds normally work? According to Supply Chain Drive, shippers usually have two options. During the 300-day liquidation period, importers can file post-summary corrections to fix entry documents. If that period is over, they can submit formal protests within 180 days to challenge duty charges.

How could IEEPA refunds be different? It’s not clear yet, but experts say CBP might get flooded with requests, so standard rules might not fully apply. Refunds could be automatic or require extra customs work, depending on future CBP guidance.

So, make sure your broker isn’t on vacation, just in case the SC decides to give your money back.

P.S. We think this is a good time to repost our Will Smith meme! 😂

The U.S. Customs and Border Protection has chosen Exiger’s Trade AI in a multi-million-dollar deal to enhance the detection of illicit transshipment. It provides advanced analytics capabilities to help customs officers track supply chains, validate product origins, and flag high-risk shipments faster and more accurately.

This is once again a wake-up call for importers to double down on transparency, strengthen supplier checks, and align with smarter compliance practices.

Lawrence L. Herman, a veteran trade lawyer, publishes opinion pieces on Canada’s trade policy, U.S.–Canada relations, and export diversification. In his latest piece on LinkedIn, he shares his views on why Canada must diversify its trading interests amid growing trade tensions with the U.S.

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