The golden era of trade is over. Volatility is the new normal.

What’s next for businesses and policymakers?

In today’s sub-chapter:

It isn’t where it used to be.

The number of tariffs and export restrictions worldwide has jumped from 1,576 in 2010 to 3,285 in 2023. And nearly 20% of global imports are now affected by tariffs or similar measures introduced since 2009.

So, if global trade had a golden era, it was likely the 1990s. Tariffs were low (most industrial tariffs were under 5%).

Today, that predictability looks fragile. Is the old global trade order dead?

Let’s unpack it using the U.S.-Canada trade as an example.

The U.S. is still Canada’s biggest trade partner. In 2024, goods traded between the two countries topped $1 trillion for the third year in a row. The U.S. received 75.9% of Canada’s exports and supplied 62.2% of its imports. 

USMCA or CUSMA has kept this predictability for years. In 2025, trade in USMCA-qualified goods is still huge, and still mostly consistent, with the U.S. importing more from Canada than it exports each month.

But recent U.S. tariff moves are shaking that stability. Threats of punitive tariffs, including a possible 100% duty on Canadian imports tied to the recent China deal, created additional uncertainty for exporters.

A 2025 survey by Export Development Canada (EDC) shows:

Canadian exporters are hedging risks, looking beyond the U.S., and trying to keep their businesses steady. Which makes sense in today’s global trade, where a tweet or a tariff notice can change the rules overnight.

We’ve seen how far a government can stretch the rules to get a concession or gain an advantage. Trump was able to use Section 232 as a workaround to impose duties on steel, aluminum, autos, and even cabinet products, including items that technically qualify for duty‑free treatment under USMCA. Trump says it’s for national security, but… Well…

And just a few days ago, the U.S. threatened an additional 10% tariff on eight EU countries over Greenland. A tariff threat as a negotiation tool in Arctic strategy talks.

Canada’s recent moves show just how far Ottawa is willing to go to hedge risks. Ottawa is pursuing new agreements and trade missions across Asia, Europe, and ASEAN countries. About two weeks ago, PM Carney made a deal with China to boost agricultural and EV exports, aiming to grow overall exports by 50% by 2030.

So far, at least two more stops may be part of Carney’s trade tour in Q1 of 2026:

Canada’s reliance on the U.S. market means diversification is sensible as a risk strategy, but we doubt it can truly replace access to North America. The U.S. is still dominating Canada’s market, as seen in the 2024 data table below from Trading Economics.

Not entirely. But it’s no longer as reliable as it used to be.

Agreements and institutional frameworks still work. Rules are still…technically binding, and should be strictly and fairly enforced. Good thing is that tariff threats are just threats until we see a memo. A 100% tariff is still a threat unless we see an official announcement. And we all know how good Trump can be at bluffing.

So, the old global trade has just evolved. It has become increasingly fragmented, unpredictable, and risk-sensitive. According to the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2026, geoeconomic confrontation (which includes sanctions, tariffs, export controls, and other economic tools) is the top short-term global risk for 2026.

And another thing that’s changed is the confidence that trade policies will provide lasting protection to businesses. Today, these policies are here. Tomorrow, they’re gone.

Policymakers should pursue more predictable agreements and stronger enforcement mechanisms. Remove ambiguity in trade rules, including clarifying what qualifies as a national‑security justification under Section 232 and limiting the use of non‑trade issues to impose tariffs.

Experts also suggest supporting diversification of export markets and supply chains, investing in infrastructure and regulatory reforms that lower non‑tariff barriers.

The WTO, the global trade referee, should modernize its rules to match today’s global trade. Experts say it should address state-led economies like China, allow policies such as green subsidies, and use flexible approaches when full agreement is difficult. 

Anyway, while global trade is shifting from old patterns and free trade may be less dominant, it doesn’t necessarily spell disaster for businesses.

It’s a wake-up call for companies to adjust their strategies and rethink their priorities. Now more than ever, it makes sense to focus on careful planning, strategic expansion, and fully leveraging free trade agreements to manage risks and stay competitive.

During the World Economic Forum in Davos, The Future of Trade initiative, introduced by Economist Impact and supported by UNCTAD, was launched to help make trade “more open, sustainable, and secure”. It provides the research, analysis, and dialogue needed to rethink global trade. 

Global trade is fragmenting due to:

Which matters now as:

How the Future of Trade Helps

John Ferguson, global head of new globalization at Economist Impact, shared a post about the Future of Trade on LinkedIn.

🇪🇺President Trump canceled tariffs on eight EU countries. He dropped planned tariffs on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Finland that were tied to his push for U.S. control of Greenland. He reversed course after announcing a NATO “framework” on Arctic cooperation, easing trade pressure and global market concerns.

🇰🇷Trump Slaps 25% Tariffs on South Korea. President Trump announced he is raising U.S. tariffs on South Korean goods from 15% to 25%, accusing Seoul of failing to ratify last year’s trade deal. The hike affects cars, lumber, pharmaceuticals, and other products. South Korea has not received official notice and will hold urgent talks with Washington.

🤝India and the EU Seal “the Mother of All Deals”. The agreement, which European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen calls the “mother of all deals”, cuts tariffs on chemicals, machinery, vehicles, textiles, and seafood while improving market access and supporting investment. The deal also establishes a security and mobility partnership, covering nearly two billion people.

Uncertainty is the new tariff, according to UNCTAD. And the costs are too hard to ignore. According to McKinsey’s Supply Chain Risk Pulse 2025, here’s how companies are feeling the pressure:

We know we’ve shared this list before as a little holiday thank-you, but with all the twists and turns in global trade lately, we thought it’s a good time to post again. ICYMI.

Consider it your 2026 trade event cheat sheet.

In a recent LinkedIn post, Joe Valentine, a global trade expert, points out that global trade is moving toward negotiated deals, diversified supply chains, and open market access.

Tariff leadership, according to him, is about setting trade rules and securing trade networks, and not imposing quick tariffs.

Follow Joe on LinkedIn for more insights on global trade.

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